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Richard Reeve

18 Days Ago

Flatten The Curve

This is an extension of the previous Post "Now Wash Your Hands" which is located here and contains a huge amount of links, data and discussion on the SARS-Cov2 coronavirus causing the COVID-19 pandemic: https://fineartamerica.com/showmessages.php?messageid=5202913

Abbie suggested that one was closed down, and I agree, as it was getting too unwieldy, but you will still have read-only access to it using the link above (or just looking for it)

I was unable to edit the original post after 24 hours so could not add guidance after the discussion took off.

Again, previous post, with huge list of resources, can be find here:Now Wash Your Hands is HERE






This new thread is to discuss information related to the COVID-19 pandemic as follows:

1. Research relating to treatment and healthcare (please include link to direct research IF possible)
2. Updates regarding the ongoing situation - personal updates are particularly welcome (by me, at least), however harrowing, as it is the real face of the pandemic!
3. Sharing of good, scientifically plausible practices (with relevant evidence where possible) that will protect us
4. If I think of more I'll add them in the thread as this gets locked after 24 hours and I cannot edit it further.


I don't really like negatives, but this new thread took off tangentially very quickly while I was working, so:

it is NOT a place to discuss:

(a) POLITICS,
(b) RELIGION,
(c) RACIAL STEREOTYPING,
(d) APPORTIONING BLAME TO A PARTICULAR GROUP,
(e) PROMOTING CONSPIRACY THEORIES OR OTHER OFF-THE-WALL CR@P,
(f) PROMOTING SNAKE-OIL THERAPIES

Please play nicely. I am asking Abbie to eject anyone who doesn't!


This is meant to be a place to share information that someone else will find useful

** Please THINK before you POST! **
- what is the SOURCE of my information?
- is this really likely to be true? (perhaps do a bit of background reading, follow a link)
- am I arguing for the sake of it?
- am I actually ADDING to the discussion?


I truly appreciate all the posts to date and the information that has been shared. Thank you, ALL

And here's my final comment, which I have toned down considerably for the sake of those of a more refined disposition than me:

If you don't like the rules, then don't participate. It's simple. Reading this discussion is NOT mandatory. It doesn't appear on your Home Page or get sent to your email. Please sigh, ignore and more on to an alternative place of your choosing. I won't be offended.

No, really, I won't!

If you decide to stay, THANK YOU!

~Richard
#NowWashYourHands #InformationIsPower
#ContainTheSpread #FlattenTheCurve
#GiveDrJohnCampbellAKnighthood

Reply Order

Post Reply
 

Edward Fielding

18 Days Ago

The stark reality is there are not enough ICU units to handle a crush of cases. You don't want to get sick and you don't want to cause someone else's death due to your selfish acts.

Social distance yourself.

 

Richard Reeve

18 Days Ago

Please continue any discussion from "Now Wash Your Hands" here.

~Richard
#NowWashYourHands #InformationIsPower
#ContainTheSpread #FlattenTheCurve
#GiveDrJohnCampbellAKnighthood

 

David Bridburg

18 Days Ago

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-19/coronavirus-in-young-people-is-it-dangerous-data-show-it-can-be?srnd=premium

Turns out from data out of the EU and US, younger people 20s into the 40s are not impervious to this disease and are falling seriously sick.

Bloomberg is usually for pay, but at the very least some stories that involve major issues around CV seem to be free access. The company has complete control over that.

Dave Bridburg
Bridburg.com
Post Modern Gallery

 

Tibor Tivadar Kui

18 Days Ago

So we continue here...

Daily dose of good news:
"Sunlight or, more specifically, solar UV radiation (UV) acts as the principal natural virucide in the environment."

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1280232/

 

Richard Reeve

18 Days Ago

"The stark reality is there are not enough ICU units to handle a crush of cases. You don't want to get sick and you don't want to cause someone else's death due to your selfish acts." - Edward

That is true - it is easy to forget that people still need routine or emergency medical treatment that is totally unrelated to COVID-19 and they will be impacted greatly, too as hospitals are overwhelmed.

Now is not the time to break your hip! :-(

~Richard
#NowWashYourHands #InformationIsPower
#ContainTheSpread #FlattenTheCurve
#GiveDrJohnCampbellAKnighthood

 

David Bridburg

18 Days Ago

Tibor,

Yep, I generally do not follow this in any depth, but I believe water can be and has been purified for years using UV.

Dave Bridburg
Bridburg.com
Post Modern Gallery

 

Abbie Shores

18 Days Ago

Thank you everyone.

 

Edward Fielding

18 Days Ago

Richard - Yeah, I saw a disgusting post on another thread suggesting the virus "run it's course". Obviously the poster suffers from some delusion that they won't be personally impacted and has no concern for healthcare workers or their fellow citizens.

"running it's course" means thousands dying and many dying simply due to lack of access to facilities that are typically available.

 

Tibor Tivadar Kui

18 Days Ago

David,

Absolutely. On industrial scale UV light is widely used for water disinfection. I know that from first hand. But now I am bringing this up for the following reason: many people tend to misunderstand the social distancing and self isolation as staying in home...they should stay at home, but not inside. That's my point. Especially that in northern hemisphere it is spring, and the sunshine is gradually becoming stronger in UV component.

 

Abbie Shores

18 Days Ago

Edward, that's actually how the UK was dealing with it until people and the WHO screamed at them

 

David Bridburg

18 Days Ago

Tibor,

Yes, it is the angle of the sunlight..Perhaps more than the warmth. Meaning a good angle on the hemisphere gets more of the effect.

I think this is also related to how much vit D we produce in our skin as the tilt of the earth changes visa vie the sun.



Dave Bridburg
Bridburg.com
Post Modern Gallery

 

Edward Fielding

18 Days Ago

Maybe take the "sunlight is the cure-all" discussion to it's own thread? Florida "the sunshine state" is about to explode with cases. Italy has plenty of sunshine.

 

David Bridburg

18 Days Ago

Dont be obnoxious.

addition
Ed,

Thanks for editing your comments, to involve problems in Florida.

Dave Bridburg
Bridburg.com
Post Modern Gallery

 

Tibor Tivadar Kui

18 Days Ago

True, the pro-vitamin D is activated in skin by radiation. And it is helpful for the immune system. Also..UV light is widely used in clinical disinfection, and in food industry and food markets. Don't be afraid of the sunlight and fresh air.

 

Mike Savad

18 Days Ago

right now they are out of q-tips... yeah, that wood stick with the cotton on the end. they can't make the test kit without it.


----Mike Savad
http://www.MikeSavad.com

 

David Bridburg

18 Days Ago

D, a little zinc, and a tad of copper......daily and for the latter two weekly.

Keeping the immune system a little raised, perhaps. It might be a good idea.

Dave Bridburg
Bridburg.com
Post Modern Gallery

 

Tibor Tivadar Kui

18 Days Ago

"Maybe take the "sunlight is the cure-all" discussion to it's own thread?"

Uhm...some people found very strange that humanity needs to be educated on some elementary hygiene ..such as "wash your hands"
Now I found many people who does not know anything about the therapeutic effect of sunlight. Many people in my country are taking ad literam stay in home....

The sunlight therapy is being used since the dawn of humanity. And modern science still approves that.

Edward , have you ever been in an operating room to observe how overall sterilization is done??

No matter how much sunshine a place has, if people are avoiding it by all means it might have zero effect.

 

David Bridburg

18 Days Ago

Tibor,

Don?

Not sure he is up yet. Midwest. Or he has busy mornings.

Dave Bridburg
Bridburg.com
Post Modern Gallery

 

Richard Reeve

18 Days Ago

Sunlight is a great thing - in moderation.

UV sterilizes by breaking down the weak bonds in DNA/RNA. We have UV sterilization lamp for our well water and we used UV lamps in the microbiology labs to sterilize surfaces. Problem is that it can also cause us issues - e.g., melanoma - for the same reason. We literally have "thick skins" of dead skin cells, so our ever shedding epidermis protects us to a large extent (as does melanin production) which is why we also need to use sun screen.

That being said, sunlight also stimulates endogenous (inside our body) Vitamin D production and Vitamin D has been shown to help immune response (even some studies with SARA-Cov 2 coronavirus which may be on old thread).

So, to Tibor's point - yes we will need to get outside if we can still maintain social distancing as a bit of sunshine has therapeutic benefit as well as the mental benefit of being "outdoors"

[Source - me]

JMHO!

Off to work (upstairs) now, to earn money while I can as the rest of the year looks a bit lean ;-(

Be good!


~Richard
#NowWashYourHands #InformationIsPower
#ContainTheSpread #FlattenTheCurve
#GiveDrJohnCampbellAKnighthood


 

Edward Fielding

18 Days Ago

Get outside, go for a walk, all good for one's well being. Although not possible in crowded cities where evening stroll socializing is the tradition.

Keep in mind that sunlight has existed long before Covid-19.

Back to my role as support for the hospital command station that has become my front entranceway.

 

Alison Frank

18 Days Ago

Things I've been doing (besides the regular hand washing/social distancing):

Taking a daily vitamin (with zinc and a little copper, thanks David B.!)
Taking fish oil caps
Using a humidifier at night
Gargling with kosher salt and warm water
Using aquaphor on my hands, especially knuckles which seem particularly prone to dryness/cracking
Stretching/strength exercises in the garage
Wiping down the interior of my car
Spraying all the light switches/door knobs/handles in the house daily
Keep a roll of paper towels in the bathroom for drying hands
Making more crockpot meals
Trying not to worry (which is hard for me)

 

Drew

18 Days Ago

Richard for years, I built and ran computer model simulations involving human activity on a simulated geographical grid.

The Exponential population growth curve is a mathematical function representing any rapid growth of any contagion a given population can be exposed to.

Isolation is the only measure to reduce the spread. The isolated pockets will experience the same scaled down version of the said growth curve until saturation of the isolated contagion is reached.

 

Drew

18 Days Ago

Here is a link
The population growth curve is a universal constant applicable to many similar types of simulations.
https://courses.lumenlearning.com/boundless-biology/chapter/environmental-limits-to-population-growth/

 

Steven Ralser

18 Days Ago

I’m not sure if this has been posted before, but this article has some simulations which show how important social distancing is

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/world/corona-simulator/?fbclid=IwAR038d9GA8HhEvDMUPUqMLhZVfiTxNFpy0fDB_CuL0Iv8U2YTUcseU_IaaA

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Bradford Martin

18 Days Ago

Thanks to Richard for the discussions which are a safe haven from the social media nutso posts. And to all who have contributed. As a biologist with some training in virology It has been difficult to listen to all the stuff on FB etc without trying to correct everyone.. I joined some CV groups which quickly deteriorated

I supplement my income as a food delivery driver. I usually keep a good stock of hand sanitizer and 2 concentrations of alcohol. The sanitizer is for use in the car, after pick ups and deliveries. I started getting low a month ago and have not been able to restock since then. I have alternatives and as a former batch chemist I know how to mix my own if I had alcohol, but I am somewhat perplexed as to why such a shortage when we have plenty of alcohol to mix with fuel and it is made in North America. The 2 companies I diorve for are requring we have sanitizer but neither have actually come through with a supply as promised.

 

David Bridburg

22 Hours Ago

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/01/obituaries/hilda-churchill-dead-coronavirus.html

Hilda Churchill survived the Great War, the 1918 Spanish flu pandemic that claimed her baby sister, and World War II, but eight days before her 109th birthday she became Britain’s oldest recorded victim of the coronavirus.

 

Abbie Shores

22 Hours Ago

Thanks for that cheerful post David :-(

 

David Bridburg

21 Hours Ago

I does whats I can.

Dave Bridburg
Bridburg.com
Post Modern Gallery

 

Greg Norrell

21 Hours Ago

I went to town for supplies yesterday for the first time in more than a week. It was fairly shocking to see how many people were carrying on like normal. About a quarter of the people were wearing masks. Many looked homemade. Some groups were standing together in the W store chatting. We definitely have confirmed community spread locally, and Idaho has passed Oregon in total confirmed, despite having half the population and lots of space.

I also don't understand why this community, which is about half LDS, is completely out of most cleaning supplies, paper towels and toilet paper. Most Mormons already have Armageddon pantries with food and supplies for about a year, anticipating something like this.

 

Kathleen Bishop

20 Hours Ago

LOL, Greg, I know that's not funny, but it is.

We have much the same type of culture here, though not Mormon. Large enclave of self-sufficient religious folks that grow a ton of produce and have stockpiles of staples. They pretty much keep to themselves but have always stepped up to help other neighbors during a crisis. They walk the walk. I suspect they will fare better than most up here if/when the stuff hits the fan.

A lot of others around here don't take this thing seriously at all. Still getting together to party and get drunk at each other's houses, even more so now since the bar shut down. They tend to think it's all a bunch of big city hooey. Of course they only watch one "news" source and are too dimwitted to think for themselves.

 

Peter Gartner

20 Hours Ago

"We'll meet again," the Queen just said.

The words that follow, "Don't know where, don't know when".

 

Greg Norrell

20 Hours Ago

I haven't checked to see what state TV is telling their viewers...

 

Kathleen Bishop

20 Hours Ago

It's probably just as well...

 

Abbie Shores

19 Hours Ago

Our Prime minister is now in hospital

I hope he's okay even though I don't like him

His fiancée has symptoms and is pregnant

 

Jessica Jenney

17 Hours Ago

Nadia, a tiger at the Bronx Zoo in New York, has become the first of her kind to test positive for the coronavirus. The 4-year-old female Malayan tiger tested positive after developing a dry cough and is expected to recover. Five other tigers and lions at the zoo began showing symptoms of respiratory illness

The animals were infected by a zoo employee who was "asymptomatically infected with the virus" while caring for them

 

Abbie Shores

17 Hours Ago

But, before people rush to get rid of their cats, we cannot get it from them.... It's us who are the danger

 

Jessica Jenney

17 Hours Ago

Abbie, at least not today...sigh :(

 

David Bridburg

16 Hours Ago



This belongs here.

 

David Bridburg

11 Hours Ago

I am going to make an assumption that many of you began to listen to this video, I posted it once much earlier today, but that you did not get far into it. The video is a long interview. And I would have expected Gates to be a bit boring, he is not.

Some of you may have found it a very good interview.

There is a point made well into the video that matters greatly. Bill and Melinda Gates are putting $100 million up for the manufacture of a vaccine. I believe, I am tired now, that the $100 million will be spread across five different companies. The idea is to have manufacturing capacity created while each of these promising vaccines is in testing phases. Then the successful candidate or candidates would go right into production without wait. If some of the candidates come up as useless, Gates does not care if the money goes to waste in those cases.

So if you did not see this video, or get that far into it.......I will harmlessly re-post it. There is a lot of meat and potatoes in this. In large part what Gates is saying many other biotech or pharma execs fail to discuss for the public as clearly and accurately.



Note Bill Gates was quoted in the news this afternoon as saying, there is a possibility there will be fewer deaths than the experts are predicting.

My note, the world is holding its breath watching for news out of Wuhan. The city is opening up to the outside world again.

Clearly Gates likes Trevor Noah's show. Noah plays the antagonist at times, and Gates is ready to laugh here and there, but keeps his composure.

 

Peter Gartner

3 Hours Ago

A man on the tv, on North West News (BBC), with terminal cancer, has had his chemotherapy stopped, because it could make him susceptible to the Coronavirus, and if he caught it, he would most likely be at the back of the queue for a ventilator, as he was going to die anyway.

 

Richard Reeve

3 Hours Ago

And now for something completely different....

To lighten the mood, for those of you who think tourism is dead, you'll think again when you see this short, funny video from a guy downunder :-)



~Richard
#NowWashYourHands #InformationIsPower
#ContainTheSpread #FlattenTheCurve
#GiveDrJohnCampbellAKnighthood

 

David Bridburg

2 Hours Ago


■ Inconsistent protocols, limited resources and a patchwork of decision making has led to an undercounting of coronavirus deaths in the U.S., according to hospital officials, public health experts and medical examiners.

NY Times

 

Abbie Shores

2 Hours Ago

We, in the UK, have now been stopped from foreign travel, 'indefinitely'.

 

Nanci Worthington

2 Hours Ago

Here's something I found the other day - Social distancing - 6 feet might not be enough .....I read your article David about the ocean spray etc., very interesting.
We still don't know how enough about this virus and which strain is worse. As for facial masks I think everyone should wear one - including bicyclists.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/health-news/is-6-feet-enough-for-social-distancing-an-mit-researcher-says-droplets-carrying-coronavirus-can-travel-up-to-27-feet/ar-BB11Ww71?ocid=st


This video shows how micro droplets can hang in the air -

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LLzMDvzWeV8&feature=youtu.be

We have a friend who is on a feeding tube and was suppose to have it removed after 30 days. He is battling cancer and is now finally able to eat and was hoping to have the tube removed but was told he would have to wait because the surgery/procedure is considered unnecessary.
I feel so sorry for him and his family.
I will be inside the house this week due to a high pollen count this week. I wonder if the virus could attach itself to pollen ?


 

David Bridburg

2 Hours Ago

Nanci,

I am finding it easy not to worry. My dad the doctor is very worried. My mom is not worried, which is very uncharacteristic for her. I kid them that I am worried mom is going to kill dad with her trips to the market.

The answers to your questions will take time to figure out.

If you are worrying, understandable. My take is, I am doing what I can, it is what it is.

Dave Bridburg
Bridburg.com
Post Modern Gallery

 

Jessica Jenney

2 Hours Ago

How do you feel about using a camera at this time outside? I don't want to use it since it's tough to clean. at least a phone is easier to clean and wipe down. Not to mention cleaning the lens

 

David Bridburg

1 Hour Ago

Jessica,

Are you talking getting floral images in a NYC park? With people in proximity?

If so....I get your drift.

But your lungs are really what are at stake.

Dave Bridburg
Bridburg.com
Post Modern Gallery

 

Kathleen Bishop

1 Hour Ago

I don't take camera gear around places people frequent, nor do I shoot inside buildings. IMO, there's zero risk that my gear or clothing will become contaminated.

On the other hand, if I was working in a populated area, I wouldn't set equipment, including camera bags and backpacks, on any surfaces nor would I stand anywhere near people to take photos.

I think we just need to be vigilant and make common sense choices.

 

Chuck De La Rosa

30 Minutes Ago

I read on Friday that several of the big box stores reported that their in-store traffic is slowing down. The notion being that people who hoarded have exhausted their need to buy. After all one can only buy so much.

That said on Sat we did our grocery shopping. The store we normally go to was more or less normal. Up to a week prior there were at least 40 items that had quantity restrictions. All but a few of those have been dropped. TP, bleach, hand soaps of all kinds still had restrictions and did have low or empty shelves. Everything else was fully stocked and available. The store was only moderately busy and people kept their distance from one another. About 30-40% of people had masks.

We have masks on order. We want them for going shopping. We aren't expecting them for another week yet.

Regarding biking, depending on where you do it, it's one of the ultimate social distancing activities. Although it's still been a little too cold here to bike I brought them down this weekend from hanging in the garage. If it warms up we'll stay away from the crowded trails in the more populated areas and drive to one of the state trails that's gravel. Those are far less used.

It wouldn't bother me at all to use my camera. I would of course stay away from areas where there are more people. But I have honestly been quite busy. I'm working my normal work week from home. And a lot of my free time is working around the house. I'm using the time to get small projects done, getting the trailer ready for camping, assuming our first trip doesn't get cancelled, and getting yard work done. Just warm enough for that kind of stuff.

 

David Bridburg

22 Minutes Ago

Chuck,

I am seeing a big slow down at super markets here. Trader Joe's has strict limits on how many can shop at any one time, that is cutting them down. Their shelves have less on them. Costco has very short lines and for the size of the store very few people in the local store. That is totally uncharacteristic. I think restaurant owners, business owners, restaurant workers must be dropping their memberships as these store owners close their own doors. Walmart has very short lines, but our local Walmart is not a food store.

Best Buy looked open yesterday, but no one was in the parking lot.

I have discussed with a few restaurant owners if they will pay their rents? They are all edging towards a solid NO. No revenues no rent for the landlords. This is going to cause massive problems. I have also read as of two weeks ago that the big restaurant chains, Cheese Cake Factory, will not be paying their rents.

If the US was on a time line like Wuhan's, we would open up as a nation for business in late July. Do I have that sort of right? But the way we are handling it is sloppier.

Dave Bridburg
Bridburg.com
Post Modern Gallery

 

Richard Reeve

13 Minutes Ago

"We, in the UK, have now been stopped from foreign travel, 'indefinitely'." - Abbie

Exactly! Did you look at the short #visitmybackyard video ... ;-D

~Richard
#NowWashYourHands #InformationIsPower
#ContainTheSpread #FlattenTheCurve
#GiveDrJohnCampbellAKnighthood


 

Kathleen Bishop

3 Minutes Ago

"But the way we are handling it is sloppier."
Talk about an understatement. I can think of far less charitable ways to characterize our clown show.

 

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